savage-notes

A collection of 300 posts

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-26-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It was about time we'd start selling the Trump candle. Yesterday's NY session range gave us the clue, and the mute flows added to it. The result — about 65 points lost on ES overnight. Let's see if the pre-market

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-25-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Despite the price action yesterday and pre-market today, we're not out of the woods yet. This rally has been sustained by 0DTE flows intraday. There's no material change in the gamma landscape, where negative gamma dominates. Largest levels on the chart:

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-24-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The Trump candle is 240 points high. 140 points are gone already — 100 more to go. Let's have a sesh. The 0DTHERO community just got stronger Two experienced traders — Greg and Green Eyes — are now official community partners. They're in the

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-23-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ At around 7 am today, Trump posted: “The United States and Iran have had productive discussions over the past two days toward fully resolving hostilities in the Middle East. As talks continue this week, I’ve ordered a five-day pause on any military strikes against

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-20-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Happy OPEX day. We once again open below 6600 SPX as we're yet to see a reaction from Wednesday's deeply bearish flows in Mag7 names and S&P equities. Will they unleash the bear today or wait for a new

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-19-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Jerome Powell showed his true colors — which we knew — dropping a very grim picture of the job market. Something he would never think of doing in the previous administration, where he measured every single word in his statements with the care of a Japanese bonsai

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-18-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ SPX is clearly dominated by negative gamma going into this FOMC meeting. This means if Powell brings the bear hammer, things can get ugly quickly. We also want to mention that we lost 6700 SPX implied pre-market, gapping down. We've been saying that

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-17-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ As long as we stay above 6700, 6800 SPX is the upside target. Let's have a sesh. The 0DTHERO community just got stronger Two experienced traders — Greg and Green Eyes — are now official community partners. They're in the Discord daily sharing

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-16-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Last week I mentioned that we expected a test of 6600 then a violent bounce into 6800 SPX. Around futures open last night, we were 5 points off the implied 6660 SPX. Was that it? If that's the case, the next obvious target

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-13-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ New lows overnight flirting with 6630 SPX, which was, not surprisingly, the implied bottom yesterday. This range persists, and we'd like to see a full test of 6600 SPX in the next few sessions and perhaps a violent swing back to 6800. Let&

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-12-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It seems the range is moving down on SPX, from 6900 6800 SPX to 6800 6700 SPX. Take in consideration that we haven't really tested 6600 SPX intraday, only implied overnight last Monday. Until substantial war news drop, we should see price moving

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-10-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Trump said the magic words — "I THINK THE (IRAN) WAR IS VERY COMPLETE, PRETTY MUCH" — and the market jumped 100 points in 20 minutes at power hour yesterday. Flows in Mag7 and S&P equities looked extremely bullish, so barring terrible news

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-09-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The war persists. And with oil pumping (no pun intended) we seem to be losing the implied 6700 SPX pre-market. We mentioned the 6600 SPX test last Friday, and we still believe that's a possibility, perhaps lower. No bounce is to be trusted

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-06-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Terrible numbers for NFP and the selling pre-market intensifies. We're once again flirting with losing 6800 SPX, which opens up the 6700 SPX test we mentioned earlier in the week. And 6600 SPX isn't out of the question if we break

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-05-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Yesterday we mentioned the lackluster bear flow and gave an edge to upside continuation. That's exactly what we saw with price flirting back with 6900 SPX. We have more of the same for today. With no meaningful flows, the 6900–6800 SPX range

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-04-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Yesterday, SPX 6800 didn't hold at the open and the market dropped violently, stopping just 10 points short of 6700 SPX. At that point, SPX flows kicked in with heavy put selling and call buying, bouncing price back up to 6800 and above.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-03-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ <TBD after the bell> We seem to be losing 6800 SPX ahead of the open. As mentioned yesterday, this key level is critical support. A test of 6700 SPX is to be expected if we can't recover it. Losing 6700 SPX

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-02-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ A new month begins with war news. We’re looking at 6800 SPX as the most important key level for the day, and maybe the week. Losing it implies a test of 6700 SPX and perhaps lower. It’s important to remember what happened the

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-27-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ A surprising bout of selling pressure after NVDA beat yesterday. This is one of those instances again where Mag7 and S&P bullish flows lag behind price — meaning we're yet to see the reaction to those flows we mentioned yesterday. 6800 SPX

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-26-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The pump finally came yesterday ahead of NVDA ER. There's no indication in yesterday's flows that we're reversing here. Slow continuation to the upside on the daily timeframe is likely towards 7000 SPX. Let's have a sesh.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-25-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Happy $NVDA day to those who celebrate. We dipped close to 6800 SPX at yesterday’s open and saw price quickly swing back to 6900, with a gap up this morning as forecasted by the bullish flows in Mag7 and S&P equities we’

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-24-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Apparently, a work of fiction spooked the markets yesterday — search Citrini on Twitter for reference. A new buildup of bearish flow in the Mag7 and S&P equities followed. We haven’t seen a reaction from the bullish flow yet, so it’s puzzling

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-23-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’re sitting in a very interesting spot after last Friday’s OPEX. Technicals suggest a bounce in the major index ETF names, with leftover bullish flows in the Mag7 and individual S&P stocks. At the same time, the pre-market has been ugly

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-20-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It’s OPEX day. 6800 SPX persists as the key level to watch. There’s a lot of resistance above the current implied open around 6835. The pre-market uptrend seems broken, so we’re watching for downside continuation, at least to test 6800 SPX today.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-19-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ DIA is still holding its 20-day moving average, and the other index ETF names attempted a rally on low volume yesterday. 6900 and 6800 SPX are the levels to watch today. Above 6900, bull mode. Below 6800, we’re bearish into OPEX tomorrow. Let’s