Morning Market Notes 09-11-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Bounce day after four straight red closes. SPY up 0.70% premarket, QQQ up 0.81%, DIA and IWM both up about 0.75%, and VIX getting crushed 6% to 16.7. CPI just printed: headline 0.4% and 3.4% year over year, both in line, core 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected, core 2.4% year over year, in line. Gas did a third of the headline. The tape shrugged off the warm core and kept the bid.

Oil finally taking a breather is the real driver. WTI is off 3.5% to under $99 after living north of $100 all week, and that's doing more for the bid than the CPI number is. Oracle is up 5% after the close on cloud infrastructure growing 121%, which is why QQQ is leading today after leading lower all week. The warm core keeps next week's Fed hike odds sitting in the low 70s, so the bond market didn't get any relief, and a Friday gap above the Call Wall into a Fed week is the kind of setup that either gets pinned at 7600 or squeezed toward 7650. We'll see if the dip buyers hold this into the cash session or if the sellers who've owned the last four days show up at the open again.

Looks like we were right about keeping an eye on ORCL 😉.

Macro day: CPI already out at 8:30, U. Michigan prelim sentiment at 10, Monthly Treasury Balance at 2. Fed decision Wednesday.

Let's have a sesh.

$30,000 in one morning. Three years of nothing before it.

Xanlord spent three years and thousands in course fees and still couldn't call direction 30 minutes out. Then he started reading the same levels you just read and watching the flow confirm them live, and one morning trading ES and SPX off that flow paid $30,000. That's not a typical morning, but the shift underneath it is: "What's different now is my confidence, not just in entering a trade, but in knowing when to hold versus fold." You already have the read. The flow is what tells you to hold.