Morning Market Notes 10-30-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

AI spend just got the bill. QQQ down 2.54% premarket at 697, already through the 700 Put Wall with the 690 key next. SPY off 1.04%, which puts SPX around 7640, under the 7690 gap and pressing the 7650 weak sup. Dow flat, IWM off 0.54%, VIX up almost 9% to 18.70. Second straight day the Nasdaq is eating the damage.

AMZN is down about 7% after posting the deepest cash burn in its history, negative $42 billion in trailing free cash flow with capex running near $77 billion a quarter and more coming in 2027. INTC is getting cut by about a quarter on a weak Q4 guide, and the hardware and memory names are bleeding with it. Bonds are catching the flight to safety with the 10Y back under 4.95%, while Brent is back above $113 on Houthi attacks on Saudi. The market is asking who actually gets paid for all this AI spend, and this morning it doesn't like the answer.

Macro: Employment Cost Index at 8:30, Chicago PMI at 9:45. Month-end Friday, so watch the rebalance flows into the close.

Let's have a sesh.

100-point trades were rare. Then he saw the flow.

For kvuk, a 100-point trade was the one that happened once in a while, never the one he could plan for. Then he put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow and started watching it while he was in the trade, not just before he took it. His words: "Having the ability to see flow while I'm in a trade has elevated my trading beyond words." You already have the levels. The flow is what keeps you in for the whole 100.