Morning Market Notes 09-15-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Overnight dip got bought, then the open sold it right back. ES was down half a percent at 4am on the AI hangover and oil, walked back to flat into 8:30, and the cash open has SPX at 7604, down 0.20%, sitting on the 7600 Put Wall. SPY -0.18%, QQQ -0.09%, DIA -0.50%, IWM -0.73%, VIX 17.2 and bid. Small caps and the Dow are leading lower, tech is holding. This is a market that doesn't want to commit ahead of the Fed, not a market that's healed.

Same three stories, none of them resolved. Brent is holding $107 after the Houthis hit Saudi again Monday, the Gulf states shelved their Iran talks, and the East-West pipeline is still shut. The 10-year tagged 5% Monday for the first time since 2023 and is sitting at 5.04% this morning. The AI trade is still digesting the Amodei essay, semis are trying to bounce with NVDA and MU up small, but nobody's chasing. And Empire State printed -8.7 against 11.1 expected, first negative read since June, and the tape didn't blink because a soft manufacturing survey doesn't move a Fed that's hiking on oil.

Walls are unchanged at 7700/7600 with a 1.11% implied move, but the ladder rebuilt at 9:30 and it's a different map than the premarket one. 7600 is the key and we're trading on top of it. Above, 7650 is the next key, 7675 weak resistance, 7697 resistance right under the Call Wall. Below, nothing until 7550 weak support and 7528 support, which lines up with the implied move to the downside. So the plan: hold 7600 and the rotation is 7600 to 7650 all day with 7675 the stretch. Lose 7600 and hold below it, dealers go short gamma and there's 50 points of air to 7550. Day one of a Fed meeting usually trades like a positioning day, so respect the chop inside the walls and don't force the wick.

QQQ opened at 708.5, right under the 710 resistance and Call Wall, with 709 last close, the 705 key and the 700 Put Wall below. A reclaim and hold of 710 is the tell that tech is leading the bounce; failure there and 705 is the first stop, 700 is where the Put Wall catches it. Macro is done for the day after Empire. FOMC starts today, decision and Warsh presser Wednesday at 2pm ET with a hike about 90% priced, the first since 2023, then quarterly opex Friday.

Let's have a sesh.

From cutting winners short to building a house.

jmtiffany was unprofitable, stuck in the rat race, and cutting every winner short the second it wicked against him. Then he put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow, and almost a year in, his prop payouts fund his personal accounts and the profits are building his house. Not everyone's year looks like that, but the fix was the same one every time: the flow told him the move was still on, so he stopped bailing early. You already have the levels. The flow is what lets you hold the winner.