Morning Market Notes 09-09-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Red across the board premarket after the Dow dropped 600 points yesterday. SPY off 0.35%, QQQ down 0.54% and leading lower, DIA and IWM both off 0.6%. VIX bid again, up 4% to 16.4, and SPX opens with a full 1% implied move. The walls moved down with the tape: SPX Call Wall stepped to 7700, Put Wall 7600, and we're opening in the middle of that box.

Oil is still the whole story. The US hit five Iranian tankers overnight and Brent is back at $99, WTI $94, first time near triple digits in a month. That has next week's Fed hike priced at 60% and the rate-sensitive Dow names keep wearing it. Nobody is hiding in tech either, QQQ is the weakest of the three this morning. Apple's iPhone event is today, first one with Ternus on stage instead of Cook, so watch the Mag7 names into the afternoon. We'll see if this premarket downtrend stays in place or if the dip buyers show up at the Put Wall again like last week.

Macro day is empty, nothing scheduled. PPI tomorrow at 8:30, CPI Friday.

Let's have a sesh.

$30,000 in one morning. Three years of nothing before it.

Xanlord spent three years and thousands in course fees and still couldn't call direction 30 minutes out. Then he started reading the same levels you just read and watching the flow confirm them live, and one morning trading ES and SPX off that flow paid $30,000. That's not a typical morning, but the shift underneath it is: "What's different now is my confidence, not just in entering a trade, but in knowing when to hold versus fold." You already have the read. The flow is what tells you to hold.