Morning Market Notes 10-21-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Tech bid is back premarket. QQQ up 0.63% and already through its 720 res. SPY up 0.27%, small caps green again, VIX sliding toward 17.

Yesterday was a rotation day. The Dow ripped 1.02% and the Russell ran 1.65% while the Nasdaq finished flat, and the S&P tacked on 0.28% to close at 7712. This morning the AI trade is getting paid again. Supermicro is up 13% on a raised guide, while Netflix is getting hit 6% on a soft Q4 guide and an ad revenue cut. Wells Fargo's sentiment indicator also just flipped to a buy signal after the recent selloff. The headwinds haven't gone anywhere though, Brent is still sitting near $110 and the 10Y is hanging above 5.1%. SPX is already over the 7725 key premarket, 7750 weak res is the first test overhead and the 7700 Put Wall is the line underneath.

Macro day is light: no major prints, EIA crude inventories at 10:30. The real event is after the close with Tesla and Meta, plus IBM, Lam Research and Texas Instruments.

Let's have a sesh.

The name was PaperHand Tommy. Not anymore.

The name says exactly what Tommy was: the guy who read the levels right, got in, and bailed on the first wick against him. Then he put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow, and the flow started telling him whether the move was still on before his hands could get in the way. His words: "I feel almost robotic with the trades I take with flow. No hesitation. Just action." You already have the read. The flow is what gets you to hold it.