Morning Market Notes 09-02-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Third day of the Hormuz tape and the selling is finally tired. SPY flat premarket at 762 after the Dow bled 400 points yesterday, QQQ off 0.18%, VIX easing back to 16.2. ADP just printed 38K, the weakest since January, and futures barely blinked. Bad jobs news is starting to read like Fed news.

The overnight was more of the same: two tankers hit naval mines in the Strait, Iran fired back at US bases in Jordan, the UAE and Kuwait, crude is holding above $90, and the 10-year tagged 4.81%, its highest since November 2023. Yields are still the pressure point, not the headlines. Dealers keep walking the goalposts down to spot, SPY Call Wall dropped to 765 and Put Wall to 760, QQQ Call Wall cut from 720 to 710, SPX still boxed in the 7600 to 7700 corridor with spot at 7631. A box that tight into a jobs print usually means chop until something breaks it, so 7600 is the line that matters. Dell up 8% on AI servers is the one green spot in tech.

Macro after ADP: Factory Orders at 10, Beige Book at 2. Broadcom, Snowflake and HPE report after the bell, NFP Friday.

Let's have a sesh.

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