Morning Market Notes 08-20-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

The bond rally lasted exactly one day. Yields snapped right back this morning, the 10-year up over 5 basis points to 4.70 and the 30-year back near 5.25, and equities handed the entire Wednesday bounce back with them. SPY off 0.62%, QQQ down 0.91%, DIA off 0.83%. VIX bid almost 8% up to 16. Dow futures down 357 points before the cash open.

Two things are doing the damage. Traders faded the Treasury buyback once they ran the math, doubling repurchases of 10s, 20s and 30s does not fix a debt load that just crossed $40 trillion, so the long end went right back where it came from. Then Trump promised an “Economic D-Day” against Iran and crude ran to almost $94 Brent, the highest since late July, with Hormuz still shut. Higher oil into higher yields is exactly the mix that hits the growth end of the tape, which is why the Nasdaq is wearing the worst of it.

SPX is sitting right on the 7700 Put Wall with the gap at 7700.07 stacked on top, so that is the line that decides whether this is a gap fill or a real flush. Lose it and 7650 then 7600 are next. Macro is light, Philly Fed and claims already hit at 8:30, Leading Indicators at 10.

Let's have a sesh.

This old Soldier is at $82K and counting

You read the morning analysis. Blu reads the same notes, then he watches the real-time flow confirm the setups and stacks payouts toward a $100K month. That's the difference between reading about the move and being in it.