Morning Market Notes 09-04-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

NFP just blew the number out: 162K jobs versus 53K expected, unemployment steady at 4.1%, wages up 0.3% on the month, and June and July revised up a combined 55K. Futures barely blinked. SPY 771.86 down 0.17% premarket, QQQ up 0.15% at 718.78, VIX 14.2. A hot labor print landing on a tape that just closed its best session in a month.

Yesterday's 1% rip was Waller saying he could live with a hold in September if the inflation data keeps cooling. Yields backed off and everything caught a bid, Dow and S&P best day since early August. Today's jobs number argues the other way. A labor market this firm gives Warsh cover to keep the hike talk alive, so watch the 10-year before trusting the open. Dealers moved the whole box up overnight: SPX Call Wall 7800, Put Wall 7700, spot 7747 dead center with a 0.89% implied move, call it 7680 to 7815. SPY sits in a tight 770 to 775 corridor, QQQ boxed 700 to 720 with spot at 718 pressing the Call Wall. A box this tight on a Friday screams pin risk into the afternoon unless yields force the issue.

Macro is done for the day after the 8:30 print, no Fed speakers on the calendar, so this is a pure positioning session into the weekend. Bitcoin back over 80K and gold ripping say the hedge trade is still very much alive. Next week CPI is the last inflation look before the September Fed meeting.

Let's have a sesh.

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