Morning Market Notes 09-10-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Tech getting hit again premarket. QQQ down 1.12% and leading lower, SPY off 0.43%, DIA and IWM down 0.24% and 0.53%. VIX bid up almost 6% to 17.4, and SPX carries a 1.03% implied move into a PPI open. Walls didn't move: SPX Call Wall 7700, Put Wall 7600, QQQ 720 over 700, and QQQ is opening a lot closer to its Put Wall than SPX is to its own.

Oil is still driving the bus. Brent is at $102, WTI $97, and Trump said yesterday oil isn't coming down until after the midterms, so nobody is pricing a quick fix. PPI just printed 0.4% on the headline, in line, but that's off a flat July and wholesale inflation is tracking north of 5% year over year, which keeps next week's Fed hike very much on the table. The ECB already hiked 25 bps this morning. Copper is rolling over from record highs and the miners are getting smoked, and the Mag7 names are wearing the rate move harder than the Dow today, which is why QQQ is the weakest of the three. Oracle and Adobe report after the close. We'll see if the dip buyers defend the QQQ Put Wall or if this premarket downtrend runs into the cash session. Keep an eye on ORCL 👀.

Macro day: jobless claims and PPI already out at 8:30, Wholesale Trade and Existing Home Sales at 10. CPI tomorrow at 8:30, then the Fed next week.

Let's have a sesh.

$30,000 in one morning. Three years of nothing before it.

Xanlord spent three years and thousands in course fees and still couldn't call direction 30 minutes out. Then he started reading the same levels you just read and watching the flow confirm them live, and one morning trading ES and SPX off that flow paid $30,000. That's not a typical morning, but the shift underneath it is: "What's different now is my confidence, not just in entering a trade, but in knowing when to hold versus fold." You already have the read. The flow is what tells you to hold.