Morning Market Notes 09-24-26
Market Calendar
$SPX & $QQQ
Tech is getting hit hardest premarket. QQQ down 1.08% at 733.24, already trading under its own 736 Put Wall. SPY off a smaller 0.58% at 763.34, still boxed between the 760 Put Wall and 770 Call Wall. VIX up 5.8% to 16.06. This is a rates story walking into the open, not a stock story.
The 10 year yield spiked to 5.14% overnight, the highest print since 2007, and the 30 year hit 5.44%, its highest since 2004, on hot economic data. Odds of another Fed hike jumped to 71% from 55% in a single session. That is what is leaning on growth names this morning. Trump sits down with Xi in DC today too. Bessent already confirmed the trade truce gets extended through January 10, covering AI, the Middle East and critical minerals, but that is not enough to offset the bond selloff.
SPX closed Wednesday at 7706.03, but the premarket slide already has it tracking around 7652, back under the 7700 Put Wall and sitting right on 7650 weak support. Walls haven't moved, 8000 Call Wall and 7700 Put Wall, Implied Move up to 1.00%. That flips 7700 into weak resistance, with the 7694.89 gap fill just under it and 7739 above that. Hold 7650 and the gap fill back toward 7695-7700 is the bounce trade. Lose it and 7600 is next, then 7585.
QQQ has already cracked its 736 Put Wall premarket, with last close at 741.21 and the 738.19 gap fill overhead. Keys are 740 above and 730 below. Lose 730 and this is a real leg lower, not just a rates flinch. Macro day: Jobless Claims at 8:30, Barkin speaks at the Economic Club of DC, New Home Sales at 10, Kansas City Fed survey at 11. Rates are the tape today, not the data.
Let's have a sesh.
The name was PaperHand Tommy. Not anymore.
The name says exactly what Tommy was: the guy who read the levels right, got in, and bailed on the first wick against him. Then he put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow, and the flow started telling him whether the move was still on before his hands could get in the way. His words: "I feel almost robotic with the trades I take with flow. No hesitation. Just action." You already have the read. The flow is what gets you to hold it.