Morning Market Notes 09-21-26
Market Calendar
$SPX & $QQQ
Gap up Monday. SPY up 0.65% premarket at 766.64 and already through the 765 Call Wall. QQQ up 0.95% at 728.30, over its 725 Call Wall too. DIA up 0.85%, IWM up 0.73%, VIX 14.85 and asleep. SPX closed Friday at 7650, flat on quad witching with the Nasdaq the only index that finished green. Now the whole tape is bid before the open.
The why: oil is down $3 to $97 on Nymex even with Iran and the US trading threats over the weekend, the 10-year slipped back to 4.95%, and chips are ripping premarket with the rest of the AI trade. Layer on the Trump-Xi summit at the White House Thursday, trade and chips on the agenda, and the market is front-running a handshake. Last week was rotation out of the Dow, its worst week since March, into tech. This morning everything is up together, which is the difference.
SPX closed 7650, walls sit at 7700 and 7600, a 100-point box with the Implied Move at 0.94%. The 7650 to 7657 zone is Friday's close and gap, and the futures have us opening right around 7700. That's the key level and the Call Wall stacked together, so the first test of 7700 is the trade. Hold it and there's air to 7765. Reject it and 7650 is the first pullback level, 7620 below that. Post-opex Monday, gamma is lighter, so moves can run further than they did last week. Let the first 15 minutes show who's in control.
QQQ is the leader again, 728 premarket, above the 725 Call Wall with the 730 key just overhead. The 721.45 close and 721.73 gap are the levels below if this fades. Hold 725 and tech runs at 730. Lose 725 and the gap fill at 721 is the trade, with 715 the Put Wall and the last line. Macro is empty today, just the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30, which nobody trades. The week's event is the Xi summit Thursday. Until then it's flow and levels.
Let's have a sesh.
The name was PaperHand Tommy. Not anymore.
The name says exactly what Tommy was: the guy who read the levels right, got in, and bailed on the first wick against him. Then he put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow, and the flow started telling him whether the move was still on before his hands could get in the way. His words: "I feel almost robotic with the trades I take with flow. No hesitation. Just action." You already have the read. The flow is what gets you to hold it.