Morning Market Notes 09-23-26
Market Calendar
$SPX & $QQQ
Small caps leaking premarket after the Nasdaq printed back-to-back records. IWM off 0.52%, DIA off 0.30%, QQQ down 0.24% at 745.67, and SPY barely red, off 0.10% at 772.63, sitting just above the 770 Put Wall with the Call Wall stepped up to 780. VIX 14.29, up a hair. Nobody is panicking, just some air coming out after the run.
The why: Xi lands at Joint Base Andrews today, his first DC trip in 11 years, and nobody wants to get too far ahead of it. Oil is still doing the heavy lifting on the bid. US and Iran officials sat down for hours at the UN yesterday and WTI slipped under $90. Tuesday was all Nasdaq, SPX flat and the Dow red, so the AI trade is still the only thing carrying weight.
SPX closed flat at 7764.64 and the walls didn't budge, 8000 Call Wall and 7700 Put Wall, Implied Move 0.89%. The ladder tightened up though: 7750 is key with the 7756.26 gap sitting right on top of it, 7800 is weak resistance and 7825 is above that. Downside is 7700 at the Put Wall, then 7686. SPY's premarket dip puts the open right on that gap. Plan is simple, hold 7750 and 7800 is the magnet, lose it and 7700 is the test.
QQQ gave back a piece of Tuesday's record. 745.67 premarket against a 747.46 close, 750 Call Wall overhead, keys at 745 and 740 below, 755 above the wall. Hold 745 and 750 gets tagged again, lose it and 740 is the flush. Macro day is the Flash PMIs at 9:45, manufacturing and services. The real tape risk is headlines, the Xi arrival and anything out of the Iran talks.
Let's have a sesh.
The name was PaperHand Tommy. Not anymore.
The name says exactly what Tommy was: the guy who read the levels right, got in, and bailed on the first wick against him. Then he put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow, and the flow started telling him whether the move was still on before his hands could get in the way. His words: "I feel almost robotic with the trades I take with flow. No hesitation. Just action." You already have the read. The flow is what gets you to hold it.