Morning Market Notes 09-22-26
Market Calendar
$SPX & $QQQ
Quiet premarket after a monster Monday. SPX closed 7764.70, up 1.49% for its best day since early August and sitting about 0.4% off the record, and the Nasdaq printed a record close. This morning SPY is flat at 774.15, up 0.08%, wedged right between the 770 Put Wall and the 775 Call Wall. QQQ off 0.06% at 741.05. DIA up 0.43%, IWM up 0.65%. VIX 14.68 and still bleeding. Nobody is paying for protection into a record.
The why: oil keeps giving it back. Falling crude pulled the 10-year back under 5% and lit up the AI names, Comm Services and Tech carried the whole tape Monday while Energy was the only red sector. Rotation out of the oil trade and into growth is the move, and the Trump-Xi summit Thursday is the next headline the tape is leaning on.
SPX walls blew way out, 8000 Call Wall and 7700 Put Wall, a 300-point box with the Implied Move at 0.92%. Dealers aren't pinning anything up here after a 1.5% day. The ladder that matters is tighter: 7750 is weak support right under the close, 7701 is the hard floor at the Put Wall, 7800 is weak resistance with 7845 above it. Plan is simple, hold 7750 and 7800 is the magnet with the record right there, lose it and 7701 is the test.
QQQ is the leader that has to prove it now. 741 premarket against a 741.47 close, walls at 750 and 730, keys stacked at 745 and 748 into the 750 Call Wall, with 740 and 735 as the keys below. Tight stack, so expect chop between 740 and 745 until the flow picks a side. Macro day is basically empty, Barkin at 1 is the only print. The real tape risk is the UN podium, any Trump and Iran headline moves crude and crude moves everything right now.
Let's have a sesh.
The name was PaperHand Tommy. Not anymore.
The name says exactly what Tommy was: the guy who read the levels right, got in, and bailed on the first wick against him. Then he put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow, and the flow started telling him whether the move was still on before his hands could get in the way. His words: "I feel almost robotic with the trades I take with flow. No hesitation. Just action." You already have the read. The flow is what gets you to hold it.