Morning Market Notes 10-15-26
Market Calendar
$SPX & $QQQ
Chips are getting dumped again and it's dragging the whole Nasdaq with it. QQQ down 1.21% at 720.13, already under its 725 Put Wall and sitting right on the 720 key. SPY off 0.30% while DIA is green 0.29%, so money is hiding in the Dow again. VIX up 3.8% to 17.51. SPX closed at 7718.94, and SPY's move puts it just under the 7700 key level, with 7750 weak res overhead and the 7670 key, then 7650 weak sup, below.
TSMC posted a record quarter, profit up 69% with a Q4 guide of $52.3B to $54.3B, and it still couldn't save the group. The problem isn't demand, it's the money behind the AI buildout. CoreWeave's bonds are yielding around 16% after the stock fell 15% yesterday, Oracle's credit spreads keep widening, and Micron, AMD and Nvidia are all red premarket. Asia got wrecked overnight, Kospi down almost 8% and the Nikkei off about 5%. Brent slipped back under $105 and the 10Y eased to around 5.1%, but with an October hike back on the table after Wednesday's hot CPI and this morning's PPI, the high-multiple names are the ones taking the hit. We'll see if the Dow rotation can hold SPY together into the open.
The 8:30 data piled on. PPI ran hot at 1.3% vs 0.5% expected, 6.3% y/y, with core at 0.7% vs 0.3%. Retail sales beat at 0.8% vs 0.3%, jobless claims steady at 199K, Empire State jumped to 25.5 while Philly Fed slipped to 20.9. Business inventories at 10, Hammack at 4:30, then Warsh speaks tonight.
Let's have a sesh.
He almost quit. Then $100K in prop payouts.
TigerWould put in two years on options and twelve months on futures with only a few green months to show for it, and he almost walked away. Then he put the same read you get in these notes every morning next to real-time flow and pulled $100K+ in prop payouts in 2025, $65K inside his first two months as a member, $15K in the first six days of 2026. His words: "Within weeks, I wasn't chasing the market, I was in the move." Nobody hands you his numbers, but you're already doing the reading, the only thing missing is the flow.