Morning Market Notes 10-12-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Quiet holiday tape to start the week. SPY flat at 778.74, QQQ off 0.16% at 750.05, DIA flat, IWM off 0.12%. VIX up 4.5% to 15.50. SPX closed Friday at 7811.54, and premarket has us parked just above the 7800 weak support with the 7825 key level right overhead. QQQ is sitting right on its 750 Put Wall.

It's Columbus Day, so stocks are open but the cash Treasury market is shut, expect thin volume. Oil is bid again, WTI up about 1.3% to $93, after the Houthis claimed weekend strikes on Saudi airports and Aramco facilities and Trump floated joining the Saudis against them. That's more than offsetting the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire headline. The 10Y finished last week at 5.24% after tagging 5.365%, its highest since 2002, and Nasdaq futures are the laggard this morning. Big week loading up: JPMorgan, Goldman and Citi kick off bank earnings tomorrow, CPI Wednesday, PPI and retail sales Thursday. We'll see if 7800 holds or the holiday chop drags us back toward 7750.

Macro day is empty: nothing on the calendar and the bond market is closed.

Let's have a sesh.

He almost quit. Then $100K in prop payouts.

TigerWould put in two years on options and twelve months on futures with only a few green months to show for it, and he almost walked away. Then he put the same read you get in these notes every morning next to real-time flow and pulled $100K+ in prop payouts in 2025, $65K inside his first two months as a member, $15K in the first six days of 2026. His words: "Within weeks, I wasn't chasing the market, I was in the move." Nobody hands you his numbers, but you're already doing the reading, the only thing missing is the flow.