Morning Market Notes 10-07-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Red tape to start the day. SPY down 0.39% at 776.06, QQQ down 0.69% at 754.42, DIA off 0.82%, IWM off 0.91%. VIX bid up 5.1% to 15.77. SPX closed Tuesday at a record 7818.93 and premarket has us slipping back under the 7800 Put Wall. QQQ is testing its 755 Put Wall.

Same two problems as last week, oil and yields, and both are climbing again. Brent is back over $101 and WTI is pushing $90 with a Gulf of America storm shutting in offshore production and fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The 10 year is back up around 5.3% and the 30 year tagged 5.70%, highest since 2002. Nasdaq futures are taking the worst of it, down about 0.7%, so tech is the one getting hit.

Macro day is back loaded: a $39B 10 year auction at 1, FOMC minutes at 2, then Consumer Credit at 3.

Let's have a sesh.

The edge is also knowing when to sit on your hands.

Most traders don't lose on the setup, they lose on everything they take around it: the chop entries, the boredom trades, the forced fills. UmaA put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow and got the part nobody sells you: "Not only does this tool indicate when to enter, it also indicates when to sit on your hands." You already have the levels. The flow tells you which ones to leave alone.