Morning Market Notes 10-14-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Hot CPI and the tape flipped. Futures were green all morning, then core came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% expected and 2.6% y/y vs 2.5%, with headline at 3.7% vs 3.6%. SPY now off 0.26% at 776, QQQ down 0.55% at 739.49 and already under its 740 Put Wall, IWM getting hit hardest, down 0.90%. VIX up 2.5% to 15.65. SPX closed at 7805.45, and SPY's move puts it under the 7800 key level, right around the 7786 gap, with 7825 weak res overhead and 7750 weak sup below.

Gas did most of the damage, more than half the monthly headline increase, but core running hot is the part that matters. Williams already said one more hike may be appropriate this year, and a print like this puts an October hike back on the table with the 10Y sitting around 5.2%. Brent is still above $105 with shipping attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Banks keep rolling: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report this morning, and BlackRock is up about 3% after a 37% earnings jump. ASML raised its full-year guide and says demand could outrun capacity through 2028, which gives chip names something to lean on after two days of CXMT selling. We'll see if the dip buyers show up at the cash open.

Macro day: CPI is out, Beige Book at 2. PPI and retail sales tomorrow.

Let's have a sesh.

He almost quit. Then $100K in prop payouts.

TigerWould put in two years on options and twelve months on futures with only a few green months to show for it, and he almost walked away. Then he put the same read you get in these notes every morning next to real-time flow and pulled $100K+ in prop payouts in 2025, $65K inside his first two months as a member, $15K in the first six days of 2026. His words: "Within weeks, I wasn't chasing the market, I was in the move." Nobody hands you his numbers, but you're already doing the reading, the only thing missing is the flow.