Morning Market Notes 09-28-26
Market Calendar
$SPX & $QQQ
Red start to the week and oil is doing the damage. SPY off 0.29% at 769.13, QQQ down 0.48% at 740.96, DIA and IWM both off about 0.45%. VIX bid up 7.6% to 16.00. Crude ripped over 4% overnight, WTI at $96 and Brent at $108.50, and the protection bid is showing up before the cash open.
The catalyst is Iran. Trump rejected Tehran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for lifting sanctions and the naval blockade, said it's "not the deal that I want to make," and promised more talks this week. Oil pushing back toward $100 on top of a 10 year yield still sitting above 5% is the same squeeze that leaned on this tape last week. Metals are getting hit too, gold off 3% and silver nearly 5%, with yields keeping the bid out of them.
SPX levels: premarket we're sitting between 7700 weak support and 7750 weak resistance, with 7796 the next cap above. 7700 doubles as the Put Wall, so that's the line.
QQQ is under Friday's 744.50 close and sitting right on the 740 key level, 745 Call Wall overhead, 736 key below and the 730 Put Wall under that. Macro day is light: Dallas Fed Manufacturing at 10:30 and NY Fed's Williams out on the road. The real week is back half loaded: JOLTS Tuesday, GDP and Core PCE Wednesday with Micron earnings, then the jobs report Friday. Wednesday is also EOM plus quarter end, so expect some rebalancing noise into the close: EOM/EOQ flows.
Let's have a sesh.
He almost quit. Then $100K in prop payouts.
TigerWould put in two years on options and twelve months on futures with only a few green months to show for it, and he almost walked away. Then he put the same read you get in these notes every morning next to real-time flow and pulled $100K+ in prop payouts in 2025, $65K inside his first two months as a member, $15K in the first six days of 2026. His words: "Within weeks, I wasn't chasing the market, I was in the move." Nobody hands you his numbers, but you're already doing the reading, the only thing missing is the flow.