savage-notes

A collection of 241 posts

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-02-26

Weekly Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We begin February with a crypto bloodbath. Some of that spilled into the futures open last night, and the SPX implied overnight saw 6850. The Nasdaq is getting hit harder so far, so we’ll see if 6900 supports the market into the NY

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-30-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ This is your EOM flows session. SPX is implied to open below 6950. ES is ranging pre-market, so we’re watching for a break of 6975 to the upside or a test and rejection of 6950 for more downside continuation like yesterday. Let’s have

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-29-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Our notes yesterday were on point — FOMC was a nothing burger, with the SPX daily range just over 35 points. Daily flows were also mute in stocks and Mag7 names, so there’s no edge for today’s session, especially with futures range trading pre-market.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-28-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Happy FOMC day. We were heading toward 7000 SPX in yesterday’s session when traders started selling calls and buying puts right before lunchtime. We did hit the implied 7K overnight on futures, and now an attempt to break the uptrend pre-market is underway. A

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-27-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The stacked levels at 6975 and 6980 SPX, with a gap below, paint a clear picture of the range we’ll be watching for a possible break today: 6950–6980. Tomorrow is FOMC day, so we’ll see whether this range persists or an accommodative

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-26-26

Market Calendar (Week) $SPX & $QQQ It’s FOMC week once again, and the index ETF–related names are starting the week with a bit of technical weakness. There were absolutely zero flows on Friday, so we’ll most likely range above 6900 if it holds. Volatility returns with a

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-23-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’re sitting in limbo above 6900, as there’s no expected catalyst left this week. Unless something new drops, we’re in for more range trading. A strong break below 6900 might give us something to trade. Otherwise, strong signals only. Let’s have

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-22-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ On Monday I wrote: A tweet from Trump could take us back to 6900 in a matter of minutes — or break us below 6800 just as fast. So tread carefully. And that’s exactly what we saw over the past two sessions. On Monday, a

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-21-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We keep making new lows pre-market, and yesterday’s flows didn’t favor a bounce but rather a continuation to the downside. No one should be bullish with this market below 6900. We’re in a negative gamma–dominated environment, and chances are the downtrend

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-20-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The market sold off overnight and during the holiday, driven by Greenland tensions. As you can see, there’s not much support below 6850 besides a weak 6800. A tweet from Trump could take us back to 6900 in a matter of minutes — or break

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-16-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It’s OPEX day. $SPX is set to open around 6950, a really large level into today’s expiration. But even larger is the 7000 call gamma. Today we’ll be looking for a directional trade, so a trend day could be in the works.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-15-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The $SPX did exactly what we forecast yesterday, testing 6900 and just below it. The strong break didn’t happen, so this bounce was also telegraphed. We still need a strong break below to enter true bear mode in this market. There’s some leftover

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-14-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Yesterday’s session proved the fragility of this rally. We’ve been downtrending since the CPI print, and the pre-market shows clear signs of weakness. Unless this trend breaks to the upside, continuation is to be expected, and a test of 6900 SPX is likely.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-13-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’ve got the range for the 2.0 on this CPI print. Let’s have a sesh. $65K in 2 Months. $15K in 6 Days.  TigerWould almost quit trading. Then he joined 0DTHERO. 2025 total: $100,000 in prop firm payouts. 2026 is already

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-12-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It’s time for some volatility in the market after we made new highs last week. And it already started last night after futures opened, when the Fed dropped news about an ongoing federal investigation into JPow and his crew. What an interesting week ahead.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-09-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ NFP day, folks. We’re seeing a weak reaction to the cold data that just dropped, not moving the pre-market range much. 6900 SPX is still the key level to watch on the bear side in case of a strong break below. If we manage

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-08-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We keep making new ATHs on $SPX, and this time the Nasdaq 100 helped us get there. Industrials are weak this morning (Dow Jones), and we’ll possibly open gapping down on $SPX. Index ETFs are carrying quite a bit of bearish flow, while individual

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Morning Market Notes 01-07-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Fresh ATHs on $SPX, yet no support from long-term flows in stocks and the Mag7. Usually, when a move is purely 0DTE-driven, we see reversals at some point. Today’s levels are loaded, meaning it could be a slugfest to break between them. 6900 is

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-06-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The S&P 500 took a ride with the Dow Jones yesterday in what could have been a year-start sector rotation. Today we see the Dow muted pre-market and the Nasdaq up about 50 points. We have mixed signals from flow, so we’ll

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-05-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We begin the first full week of trading in 2026 in a delicate spot, right above the key level to watch this week: 6850 SPX. This overnight uptrend in futures is also on watch. A failure to hold 6850 SPX might be the cue for

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 01-02-26

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Happy New Year. In our weekend notes, we successfully predicted a halt to the Santa rally. Another short week in the markets ahead, and from our point of view, the Santa rally wrapped up last week — specifically on Wednesday, riding the wave of breaking the

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 12-31-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ EOM/EOY flows in one session. That’s all I have to say. I wish you all a very Happy New Year. Let’s have a sesh. From Bleeding Fees → 10x Daily Returns @StillCrowing: 11 months failing evals, family going without, fees stacking. Joined 0DTHERO.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 12-30-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Two extremely range-y sessions behind us, and now we can finally say this market is ready for some movement. 6900 SPX is the level to watch for directional trades. Let’s have a sesh. From Bleeding Fees → 10x Daily Returns @StillCrowing: 11 months failing evals,

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 12-29-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’re seeing a downtrend pre-market in futures after we mentioned yesterday that […] from our point of view, the Santa rally wrapped up last week — specifically on Wednesday […]. Even with $ES_F down almost 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.71%, I wouldn’t

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 12-24-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Merry Christmas Eve 🎄 Surprisingly to me, the spread guy is back with a vengeance after two consecutive losses. $SPX is already sitting in the middle of his iron condor range, so it won’t be hard for the seek-and-destroy algo to check his levels — and