Morning Market Notes 11-04-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Democrats take Congress and the tape is green. SPY up 1.05% premarket, the Dow ETF up almost 2%, IWM up 1.69%, and VIX getting crushed 12% to 18.28. QQQ is the laggard at +0.47%, 688 and holding over the 685 key. That puts SPX around 7650, sitting right on the key with 7600 weak sup and the 7594 gap underneath and 7700 weak res overhead. Gridlock is the trade this morning.

The midterm results landed overnight and futures flipped from red to green, with Dow futures up 900 points at the highs. Divided government means less chance of big policy swings. Rotation is the real story though: the Dow and small caps are doing the heavy lifting while the Nasdaq lags, with talk of tighter data-center and AI rules hanging over the AI capex names. Renewables and healthcare names are bid, defense names are offered. The 10Y is slipping to 4.92% and Brent is easing under $103. Yesterday the Nasdaq bounced 0.83% and the S&P snapped a three-day losing streak, so we'll see if the cash open adds to it or fades the gap.

Macro: ADP and Trade Balance already crossed, Services PMI at 9:45, then ISM Services at 10.

Let's have a sesh.

The edge is also knowing when to sit on your hands.

Most traders don't lose on the setup, they lose on everything they take around it: the chop entries, the boredom trades, the forced fills. UmaA put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow and got the part nobody sells you: "Not only does this tool indicate when to enter, it also indicates when to sit on your hands." You already have the levels. The flow tells you which ones to leave alone.