Morning Market Notes 09-30-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Green tape premarket with small caps leading the way. IWM up 0.77% at 281.15, SPY up 0.45% at 767.67, QQQ up 0.40% at 740.90, DIA up 0.40%. VIX off 2% to 15.72. Bonds are finally catching a bid and the tape is breathing.

The catalyst is the Fed walking back the hike talk. Williams said there's no immediate urgency to raise rates, and October hike odds on CME FedWatch dropped to roughly a coin flip from over 70% yesterday. That pulled the 30 year off 5.6%, its highest in more than 24 years, and it's why IWM is leading, small caps are the most rate-sensitive thing on the board. Brent is cooling near $103, and it's quarter end, so expect rebalancing flows into the close. EOM + EOQ flows in one session. Micron reports after the bell, the big test for the chip trade after this week's swings.

Macro day is loaded: ADP at 8:15, then GDP, PCE, Core PCE, income and spending all at 8:30, Chicago PMI at 9:45, and Goolsbee at 4. Micron after the close, jobs report Friday.

Let's have a sesh.

Year Two Unlocked: 14 months of HERO, one price

Those levels you just read are the map, and the dashboard is where you watch the flow hit them live, all week, every week. Two years in and you are the reason 0DTHERO exists, so here is the birthday gift: HERO annual for $1,990 gets you 14 months (12 plus 2 on Savage), renews at $1,990/year, roughly $142/mo instead of $199 monthly. Offer closes Sunday, Oct 4 at midnight, then it is gone.