Morning Market Notes 09-29-26
Market Calendar
$SPX & $QQQ
Barely green tape premarket as oil cools off. SPY up 0.16% at 766.82, QQQ leading, up 0.35% at 739.12, DIA and IWM both up just over 0.2%. VIX easing 1.4% to 15.85. Yields are backing off yesterday's fresh highs.
The catalyst is the oil tape, not a deal. US and Iranian officials held separate indirect talks through mediators, Trump denied offering any sanctions relief, and flows through Hormuz are back above 90% of pre-war levels, which is bleeding some of the conflict premium out of crude. Chips are leading the bounce after yesterday's SOXX flush on OpenAI pausing frontier training. Micron is up about 1.7% into Wednesday's earnings, NVDA is bid after Monday's $150B buyback authorization, and AMD is green on its $8.2B World Labs deal.
SPX levels: we closed at 7683.69 and premarket has us pressing right into 7700, the key level and the Call Wall. 7750 weak resistance and 7775 resistance sit above if we clear it. Below, 7650 weak support, then 7618, with the 7600 Put Wall under that. Hold 7700 and 7750 is in play, lose 7650 and yesterday's selloff gets another leg.
QQQ is sitting just under the 740 Call Wall, which doubles as resistance on the ladder, with 745 key above that. 736 and 735 keys sit right on yesterday's 736.53 close, and 730 support is the Put Wall. Macro day is heavier than yesterday: Case-Shiller at 9, then Consumer Confidence and JOLTS at 10. Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 1 and Williams at 2. Wednesday is the big one with GDP, Core PCE, Micron and quarter end, then the jobs report Friday.
Let's have a sesh.
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