Morning Market Notes 08-03-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Risk-on open to kick off August. Everything is green premarket. DIA up 1.12% leading the tape, IWM up 0.88%, SPY up 0.51%, QQQ dragging at 0.17%. VIX is sitting at 16 and not backing off on a green tape, protection is staying bid through the relief pop.

The driver is Iran. Trump called off what he described as massive strikes and says talks start this afternoon, so crude got smoked overnight, WTI down 6% and back under $80. That's the relief bid in cyclicals and small caps, oil pressure comes off and the Dow leads. Tech is the laggard while it digests Friday's megacap earnings, but the earnings tape is still doing the heavy lifting, roughly 300 S&P names in and 85% beating. One wrinkle for your radar: Tehran says no negotiations are actually happening, so this headline can cut both ways intraday.

SPY is opening right on top of the 750 Call Wall, same setup QQQ gave us Thursday: if flow chews through it early the gap has legs, if it stalls there we pin and chop. QQQ has the 690 key level overhead and the 680 Put Wall underneath. Macro day: final manufacturing PMI at 9:45, then ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10. The week builds to Friday's July jobs report with JOLTS and claims in between.

Let's have a sesh.

This old Soldier is at $82K and counting

You read the morning analysis. Blu reads the same notes, then he watches the real-time flow confirm the setups and stacks payouts toward a $100K month. That's the difference between reading about the move and being in it.