Morning Market Notes 07-14-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

CPI morning and the tape already picked a side. QQQ is up 1.3% premarket and trading through its 720 Call Wall, SPY is up 0.4% sitting on top of the 750 Call Wall, and VIX is getting crushed, down 3.4% into the 16s. Consensus wanted a negative monthly print with year over year cooling toward 3.8%, and the reaction off the 8:30 release says the number played ball. Small caps are riding the rate relief too, IWM up 1.3%, while the Dow sits this one out.

Both index ETFs opening above their Call Walls is the tell, dealers are short calls up here, so a push through 7550 forces the chase and a fade back under 7500 unwinds the premarket froth fast. After the print it turns into a Fed parade: Chair Warsh testifies to Congress at 10, then Barr, Goolsbee, Cook and Bowman speak through the afternoon. Plenty of chances for the tape to change its mind.

Let's have a sesh.

This old Soldier is at $82K and counting

You read the morning analysis. Blu reads the same notes, then he watches the real-time flow confirm the setups and stacks payouts toward a $100K month. That's the difference between reading about the move and being in it.