Morning Market Notes 07-01-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

First session of the second half and the tape's opening soft. QQQ's the laggard, down 0.90% premarket, SPY off 0.30%, and the VIX is bid back over 2% toward 17. Nothing violent, just tech bleeding a little after Q2 closed pinned at the highs. SPX settled yesterday at 7499, wedged right under the 7500 SPX. New quarter, fresh positioning, and a data-heavy morning to set the tone for H2.

7500 is the line. Clear it clean and 7525 then the 7550/7559 res shelf come into play. Lose the 7450 Put Wall and the air pocket opens up underneath.

Macro's stacked to kick off jobs week: ADP employment at 8:15 (prev 122K), Fed Chair Warsh on the tape at 9:30, S&P final manufacturing PMI at 9:45, then ISM manufacturing (prev 54.0%) plus construction spending at 10. Watch that 10am print and anything Warsh says for the tone.

Let's have a sesh.

This old Soldier is at $82K and counting

You read the morning analysis. Blu reads the same notes, then he watches the real-time flow confirm the setups and stacks payouts toward a $100K month. That's the difference between reading about the move and being in it.