savage-notes

A collection of 70 posts

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-20-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ This is the FOMC Meeting hangover and the OPEX-eve session. The $SPY flow left some leftover positive delta in the tank that might come into play today or tomorrow, but overall, the FOMC move is completely sold off at this point. Gotta say, I don’

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-18-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ That was fast. We hit our weekly target in a day. Surprised? Not really. Technicals told the story, and flow supported the bullish thesis, pulling some options walls up to get us there. Now, we wait and see how we react here. If we turn

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-17-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Cold retail sales print has caused an impressive recovery in futures this morning. If you read my weekly calendar notes from yesterday, we’re bullish until we’re not. 5700 is the upside target for the week. The infamous spread guy is back, which adds

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Morning Market Notes 03-14-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Consumer sentiment on tap, and we’re heading into a sesh right after a failed attempt to break 5600 $SPX yesterday. I’ll stick to my view that we might make another attempt today, hence holding calls overnight for 1 and 2 DTE, with the

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Morning Market Notes 03-13-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Futures didn’t react much to the Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims this morning. On Monday, we mentioned that a bounce this week could be in the cards, and after benign inflation data prints, we might be at a pivot point here. Time for

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-12-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It’s an unc2.0 CPI kind of day. That’s it. That’s the tweet. Let’s have a sesh. 🚨 The Next Evolution of 0DTHERO Is Here! We just dropped the newest version 0DTHERO – your trading companion— and it’s packed with powerful tools,

savage-notes

Weekly Calendar & Morning Market Notes 03-10-25

Hey traders, Here’s what’s on the radar for this week’s market events: There’s a slowdown in momentum as we make new yearly lows across the board on ETFs tied to major indices. My view for this week is that we could see a retracement towards the

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 03-06-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ This is NFP-eve, and the markets had a few important prints today, like jobless claims and the U.S. trade deficit. We’ll be watching for a combination of technicals on major index-ETFs and leftover flow today as we approach the closing bell. NFP is

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Morning Market Notes 03-05-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The spread guy is back, as pointed out in the chart below. Of all the major indices, only the Nasdaq-100 seems to be losing downside momentum. The Qs might be showing signs of starting what could be the beginning of a short-term rally now that

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Morning Market Notes 03-04-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Not much on tap for the day besides a couple of FED speakers, as we keep the downside momentum going. $DIA was the closest ETF to attempt a tap of the 20DMA we mentioned in yesterday’s notes, as a brutal selling spree caused the

savage-notes

Weekly Calendar & Morning Market Notes 03-03-25

Hey traders, Here’s what’s on the radar for this week’s market events: EOM flows on Friday didn’t disappoint, delivering a strong move right before the closing bell. This week, we want to see a return to the 20-day moving average on major indices before making any

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Morning Market Notes 02-28-25: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) & EOM flows

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ PCE print came in line, giving us barely any reaction pre-market as the market attempts a rebound from yesterday’s massive sell-off. We usually point out when we’re right in our notes, but it’s only fair to do the same when things go

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Morning Market Notes 02-27-25: GDP

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ $NVDA Q4 earnings report delivered as expected. When Wall Street is buying, there’s no point in being bearish on this stock—simple as that. Now, we got an inline GDP print with barely any market reaction. GDP Q4 first revision 2.3%, Exp. 2.

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Morning Market Notes 02-26-25: $NVDA Q4 earnings report

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It’s $NVDA Q4 ER day, and we’re here for it. Implied move is sitting around 8.5%, meaning we could see $NVDA hitting 140 or 118—steep moves. And since the market loves this stock, expect a strong follow-up reaction on the Nasdaq

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Morning Market Notes 02-25-25: consumer confidence

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The downside momentum seems to be decelerating on $DIA, the Dow Jones Industrial ETF, and a slowdown in selling volume can be noticed across the board on major ETFs tied to indices. This doesn’t mean a bounce is imminent, but it’s worth watching

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Morning Market Notes 02-24-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’re starting fresh with new options positioning after the OPEX bloodbath last Friday. The big bois are now at 6000 $SPX, 595 $SPY, and 520 $QQQ—see gamma exposure charts above. We have important data this week, starting with $NVDA ER on Wednesday after

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Morning Market Notes 02-21-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ It’s OPEX day, and we’re here for it. Before the week kicked off, we mentioned that the Dow Jones would be the thermometer for major price moves—and I guess we nailed that one again. On Wednesday, when the Dow showed a little

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Morning Market Notes 02-19-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ The S&P pushed to new all-time highs right at the close of yesterday’s session, aligning with our reasoning for a continued pump to start the week. Now, it’s all about the Dow Jones ($DIA)—if they manage to push it to

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Morning Market Notes 02-18-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ This weekend, we mentioned that an upside breakout was likely, and that’s exactly what we’re starting to see with this overnight Futures action. I still believe the Dow Jones needs to cooperate for this move to be sustainable. As you can see through

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Morning Market Notes 02-14-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Happy Valentine’s Day. After the CPI dump pre-market on Wednesday, downside signals from technicals have reset as ETFs tied to indices reclaimed their 20-day SMAs. With that in mind, there’s no reason to be bearish unless we break below 6100 $SPX with strength.

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Morning Market Notes 02-13-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ After a massive day in the markets fueled by the extra-hot CPI print, we head into the PPI session with not nearly as much excitement. We’re also seeing some mixed signals on the daily charts for ETFs tied to major indices. The big three—

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Morning Market Notes 02-12-25

Market Calendar Hot—very hot—CPI numbers just dropped, coming in 20 basis points above expectations. We were looking forward to the unc2.0 today, but this range exceeds the safe limits of our algorithm. Will I play it anyway? Yes. Why? There’s a key combo at play here.

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-11-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ Should I share the good or the bad news first. Well, that spread guy is back, and we all know how the market tends to behave when those positions are in play. Their levels today are set at 6025-30 and 6090-95 $SPX. That’s the

savage-notes

Morning Market Notes 02-10-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ In my weekend notes, I highlighted the bearish signals stemming from index-related ETFs, and right on cue, we gapped down at Futures open just minutes before the Super Bowl. It seems the tariffs chatter is losing traction for the pre-market session, despite headlines continuing to

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Morning Market Notes 02-06-25

Market Calendar $SPX & $QQQ We’re seeing a low-volume recovery across ETFs tied to major indices. Today, we’ve got $AMZN’s Q4 earnings report, followed by another key NFP print tomorrow morning. There’s not much to expect from today’s session—and I’m not saying that