Morning Market Notes 11-12-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

Tech is giving back yesterday's rip premarket. QQQ down 1.27% to 681.64, already under the 685 key and back below the 683.56 gap, sitting right on the 680 Put Wall with yesterday's 690.38 close well overhead. SPY off 0.73%, IWM down 0.63%, DIA holding up best at -0.43%, and VIX bid 8.46% to 18.97. The bid for protection is back before the cash open.

SPX is trading around 7565 premarket, back under 7600 weak res and the 7571.88 gap, with the 7550 key right below. Lose 7550 and 7500 weak sup is the next stop, with 7471 sup under that. Reclaim the gap and 7600 is back in play, with 7646 res above.

The AI trade got knocked right back down. Reports overnight say the board at the biggest name in AI chips is meeting on whether to push out its CEO, and that headline is dragging the whole chip complex lower with the name itself off around 7% premarket. Nasdaq futures are down roughly twice as much as S&P futures and the Dow is holding up best, so this is a tech problem more than a broad market one. It's all landing with the 10-year sitting near 5% and traders pricing in more hikes after Tuesday's hot CPI, so there's no Fed cushion under the AI names this morning.

Macro day is busy on the Fed side: jobless claims at 8:30, Hammack at 9, Existing Home Sales and Barr at 10, Daly at 1:10, Treasury budget at 2, then Williams at 6:30 tonight.

Let's have a sesh.

Same charts. The fear got replaced by calm.

Most of what wrecks a trade happens between your ears: the second-guessing, the panic exit, the revenge entry after a red one. MikeTrades put the same levels you just read next to real-time flow, and the flow started answering the questions his nerves used to. His words: "The stress and fear have been replaced by calm and confidence." You already have the levels. The flow is what lets you trade them without the knot in your stomach.