Morning Market Notes 07-29-26

Market Calendar

$SPX & $QQQ

It's FOMC day.

Iran resumed strikes on US forces overnight, crude ripped more than 3%, and the tape barely blinked. SPY and QQQ are flat premarket while the Dow lags, off 0.60%. VIX is bid at 18.6 but nobody is reaching for panic protection. When this market shrugs off missiles and an oil spike in the same session, it's telling you the only thing it actually cares about today is the Fed.

SPX is pinned dead center between the 7400 Put Wall and the 7500 Call Wall with a 1.15% implied move. The decision drops at 2, Warsh takes the podium at 2:30, and a hold is fully priced, so the presser is the real event. Expect chop and pin into the decision, then the actual move once Warsh starts talking. Two of the biggest AI spenders in the Mag7 also report after the close, so the closing bell isn't the finish line either.

Let's have a sesh.

This old Soldier is at $82K and counting

You read the morning analysis. Blu reads the same notes, then he watches the real-time flow confirm the setups and stacks payouts toward a $100K month. That's the difference between reading about the move and being in it.